Technology stocks have more or less finished their recent fall, and started to rise again.
Nasdaq is leading the way up, followed by other markets in the world.
The fall of lithium prices in China has stopped, and the prices have been stable since mid-august.
The share prices of most lithium miners have stopped dropping but started to rise slightly in the US, Australia, and China. It is time to enter lithium miner sector now.
The world market is going to fall soon in the coming days / weeks, the worst ones are German market, Nasdaq. The only bright spot is the China A-shares (Shanghai stock market, while ShenZhen market is falling).
The tech growth stocks had been on the rise ever since the low of Cronovirus onset in Feb. 2020, until the yield of 10-year T-bond reached about 1.6% around Feb. 15, 2021. The have retrieved about 20%-50% in a month, and now the pullback may have finished, and these stocks started to rise again around 30 March 2021. We are not sure how long the uptrend will last as the T-bond yield is still high like 1.6-1.7%.
The technology stocks in the US have risen so much in the past month, many have even passed their pre-Coronavirus levels, this is not sustainable given the damage in the economy, so the market may pulled back a bit in the coming days. If it is not so, the market will keep moving up to crazy levels in the coming weeks !
the market actually kept moving up to an astonishing level : Nasdaq Index moved up from 9462 on June 1, 2020 to 15794 on Dec. 31, 2021, a continuous march for 18 months and a gain of 67% !
Then Nasdaq finished the crazy rise and started to fall in almost all Year 2022, back to 11004, about only 16% up from June 1, 2020, giving back most gains from the previous 18-month rise.
The stock market has wiped out all the gains from the time US President D. Trump took office in late 2016.
But technology stocks are about to turn around and rise from the lows in the coming days !
Our experiment results are astonishingly good: collectively gained 16% this year up to now ! We are longing technology companies since mid- last week (around March 18, 2020).
The stock markets have been doing so well in Year 2019 so far.
Is it time for a pull back ?
The US markets are at recent bottoms. If Nasdaq and S & P 500 keep dropping on May 2, then a technical dip is very likely.
On the other hand the economy of the US is doing well, Fed just said it will not increase the interest rates, US-China trade dispute is going to be solved (at least there will be a good outcome by Friday next week as reported by CNBC today), Chinese economy is doing well, …. companies are mostly reporting good results and upbeat on 2019, …
So fundamentally it is good , technically it is likely to pull back a bit. Hard to make a decision, then stay where we are now and see what happens next.
The world stock markets are on the downward. No good to buy stocks now, but it is profitable to short stocks.
We have been doing experiments on different strategies. The results are encouraging, like 50% profit to be on the conservative side.
Let’s try one here , starting today.
Rio Tinto is a giant mining company. It’s share prices are around AUD 73.92 as we type here now. Most analysiss give a strong buy recommendation to it. Is it right ?
We anpitipate it to be falling with the rest of the market in the coming weeks. So our experiment is to short it for a few weeks. If we are wrong, we admit it and exit the trade.
We short it at AUD 73.92 and anticipate the share price to fluctuate, up 1% or more , but eventually drop.
The world economy is slowing down, the Chinese imports are slowing down in October.
Rio Tinto ‘s anticipated revenue and income for the next few years are staggering or dropping slightly, it’s best time is in Year 2018. It’s share prices have been holding quite well in the past few months compared to most other stocks, and are thus not cheap relatively. These are the background for shorting Rio Tionto.
The share prices of Rio Tinto shot up, so we closed the position today at AUD 75.5 for a lose of about 2.14%. We plan to short it again after it is stable and starts to level off from recent bounce back.
After some time, Rio Tinto share prices did not go up so much as to change the trend. So we short it again, at a price slightly higher, AUD75.6, than previous time when we closed out in Dec. 12.
After the recent correction in the world market from Jan. 28 to Feb. 16, the world market should be stabilized a bit in the short term. However, it is not even, the European markets, especially the UK market shall start to develop a downward trend in the coming weeks.
The world economy is in good shape, and the US government has lowered significantly US corporate tax rates. So there is no fundamental problems with the economy, so the stock market should keep going up steadily.
On the other hand, many people are now jumping into the stock market, the market will keep going up crazy in the next few months !
The oil has really gone up , now about 70 USD for Brent oil.
Share prices of most oil related companies have gone up very much, and shall keep going up more in the coming months, especially those Shale related companies.
The world markets have been going up for a long time, since Nov. 7, 2016 when Mr. trump was elected as the US president.
The markets have been flat , however, since about Feb. 22, 2017.
What is the next move ?
The world economy has been stable now, some are even resuming growth, especially the US and China economies, this economic backdrop shall ensure there are no major risks to the stock markets in the short terms (like in 2017). The US FED is unlikely to raise the interest rates too aggressively in 2017. When it raises the interest rates, the market is likely to interpret it as a sign the economy is going better, so the stock market is likely to go up again !
It is likely that the technology companies will move up further, while the small companies may correct a bit, giving back some gains.
If the following signs are proven, the market will move higher:
1. Australia stock index keeps going up in the next few days.
2. Hong Kong index keeps going up in the next few days.
3. Nasdaq index follows the suit to go up a little bit.
Among the three indexes, Hong Kong index has the best chance of going up more.
In the mean time , the small company index Russell 2000, may correct (going down) a bit in the coming days or weeks, but that shall not affect other major indexes.
The influence of currencies on stock markets is quite interesting:
When the currency drops , the stock market goes up , example:
Recently Euro versus US dollar has dropped from about 1.12 to 1.09 in October 2016, almost all European stock indexes have gone up , the representative Euro 50 has gone up from about 3000 to 3090 in October, while the US markets have dropped slightly, S & P 500 dropped from about 2160 to 2138 in October.
Now the USD is rising against Japanese Yen, USD/JPY has gone up from about 101 to 104.5 in October, the Nikkei 225 index has gone up from 16,500 to 17,300.
The market is quite diversified: Bio stocks go up from now on, while semiconductor stocks go down the slope now.
Technology stocks have more or less finished their recent fall, and started to rise again.
Nasdaq is leading the way up, followed by other markets in the world.
The fall of lithium prices in China has stopped, and the prices have been stable since mid-august.
The share prices of most lithium miners have stopped dropping but started to rise slightly in the US, Australia, and China. It is time to enter lithium miner sector now.
Software stocks start to rise.
Hong Kong Stocks are about to rise in the next few weeks.
The world market is going to fall soon in the coming days / weeks.
Japanese market is an exception as Yin falls !
The world market is going to fall soon in the coming days / weeks, the worst ones are German market, Nasdaq. The only bright spot is the China A-shares (Shanghai stock market, while ShenZhen market is falling).
yes both Nasdaq and German markets fell from March 7th to March 26, then rose.
It seems they are falling again for the coming days or weeks from now on.
Shanghai shares fell a bit from March 5th until March 19th. Shenzhen shares did the same but fell more.
Since Feb. 10, the markets have all turned to downward. Currently all US indexes (Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq) are going down !
Depending on oil prices , oil sector may behave differently.
Nasdaq starts to rise for a mid-term or long-tern.
Long/Short ratio = 4.3.
Nasdaq is about to fall in the coming days / weeks.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI, Dow 30) is about to fall in the coming days/weeks for a while.
It is strange that while the US treasury bond yield keeps rising (look at the chart at https://ycharts.com/indicators/10_year_treasury_rate), the major us indexes keep rising as well.
The market currently is not behaving according to Fed interest rates used to dictating it.
The tech growth stocks had been on the rise ever since the low of Cronovirus onset in Feb. 2020, until the yield of 10-year T-bond reached about 1.6% around Feb. 15, 2021. The have retrieved about 20%-50% in a month, and now the pullback may have finished, and these stocks started to rise again around 30 March 2021. We are not sure how long the uptrend will last as the T-bond yield is still high like 1.6-1.7%.
The technology stocks in the US have risen so much in the past month, many have even passed their pre-Coronavirus levels, this is not sustainable given the damage in the economy, so the market may pulled back a bit in the coming days. If it is not so, the market will keep moving up to crazy levels in the coming weeks !
The market kept moving up all the way to about 2020.09.02 ! And then pulled back suddenly, Nasdaq dropped like 10% in 3 days !
the market actually kept moving up to an astonishing level : Nasdaq Index moved up from 9462 on June 1, 2020 to 15794 on Dec. 31, 2021, a continuous march for 18 months and a gain of 67% !
Then Nasdaq finished the crazy rise and started to fall in almost all Year 2022, back to 11004, about only 16% up from June 1, 2020, giving back most gains from the previous 18-month rise.
The stock market has wiped out all the gains from the time US President D. Trump took office in late 2016.
But technology stocks are about to turn around and rise from the lows in the coming days !
Our experiment results are astonishingly good: collectively gained 16% this year up to now ! We are longing technology companies since mid- last week (around March 18, 2020).
The US market has been rising steadily for the past many months, now it is about to change the trend, if the market keeps dropping for a few days.
The market keeps dropping , Dow dropped 600 points last night due to Wuhan Virus concern.
The stock markets have been doing so well in Year 2019 so far.
Is it time for a pull back ?
The US markets are at recent bottoms. If Nasdaq and S & P 500 keep dropping on May 2, then a technical dip is very likely.
On the other hand the economy of the US is doing well, Fed just said it will not increase the interest rates, US-China trade dispute is going to be solved (at least there will be a good outcome by Friday next week as reported by CNBC today), Chinese economy is doing well, …. companies are mostly reporting good results and upbeat on 2019, …
So fundamentally it is good , technically it is likely to pull back a bit. Hard to make a decision, then stay where we are now and see what happens next.
The world markets keep on moving ahead slowly, but one market has shown cracks: the UK market, it has started NOT to follow the US markets to move up.
Oil upstream stocks will suffer together with oil prices, as world demand for oil drops.
Car makers will also suffer due to world economy slow down.
The world markets are now on steady feet to march higher from here !
The world stock markets keep going downward as we anticipated. More drop is expected in the coming weeks.
The world stock markets are on the downward. No good to buy stocks now, but it is profitable to short stocks.
We have been doing experiments on different strategies. The results are encouraging, like 50% profit to be on the conservative side.
Let’s try one here , starting today.
Rio Tinto is a giant mining company. It’s share prices are around AUD 73.92 as we type here now. Most analysiss give a strong buy recommendation to it. Is it right ?
We anpitipate it to be falling with the rest of the market in the coming weeks. So our experiment is to short it for a few weeks. If we are wrong, we admit it and exit the trade.
We short it at AUD 73.92 and anticipate the share price to fluctuate, up 1% or more , but eventually drop.
The world economy is slowing down, the Chinese imports are slowing down in October.
Rio Tinto ‘s anticipated revenue and income for the next few years are staggering or dropping slightly, it’s best time is in Year 2018. It’s share prices have been holding quite well in the past few months compared to most other stocks, and are thus not cheap relatively. These are the background for shorting Rio Tionto.
The share prices of Rio Tinto shot up, so we closed the position today at AUD 75.5 for a lose of about 2.14%. We plan to short it again after it is stable and starts to level off from recent bounce back.
After some time, Rio Tinto share prices did not go up so much as to change the trend. So we short it again, at a price slightly higher, AUD75.6, than previous time when we closed out in Dec. 12.
The world market is going to a correction phase soon, in the next few days.
Most markets have actually entered the correction phase, such as Hong Kong, European markets.
The US markets are likely to follow suit.
The markets are on the uptrend now, especially the US markets, in particular the Nasdaq technology companies.
But gold and silver and copper are all going downward, so at this moment, gold miners are going downward, such as Barrick Gold.
London stocks shall fall in the coming weeks, as long as the FTSE 100 index does not go up beyond 7275.
After the recent correction in the world market from Jan. 28 to Feb. 16, the world market should be stabilized a bit in the short term. However, it is not even, the European markets, especially the UK market shall start to develop a downward trend in the coming weeks.
The markets has been recovering from recent corrections that started around 2018.01.28 and accelerated around 2018.02.05.
The rebounding might be reaching a limit soon, we need to monitor carefully on coming Monday.
The recent correction in the world market seems to be over, at least the downside is much less especially in the US market.
The world economy is in good shape, and the US government has lowered significantly US corporate tax rates. So there is no fundamental problems with the economy, so the stock market should keep going up steadily.
On the other hand, many people are now jumping into the stock market, the market will keep going up crazy in the next few months !
It is time to buy oil related stocks, many of them are ready to take off !
The oil has really gone up , now about 70 USD for Brent oil.
Share prices of most oil related companies have gone up very much, and shall keep going up more in the coming months, especially those Shale related companies.
Our internal calculation shows world markets are moving up again !
The market dipped one day, after N. Korea had threatened to fire on Guam Island.
It recovered almost one day later, S&P 500 is now at 2465.
Now S & P 500 is at 2399, it has shown its strength.
World markets (excluding China/ Hong Kong to a lesser extent) have the same trend :
continuing upward trend !
The world market is at a difficult point:
We are not sure its trend.
If S & P 500 rises above 2370 and stays above 2370 in the coming days or weeks, the world market is likely going upward steadily.
Otherwise, it is likely to fall back, a lot of stocks are over stretched in prices.
The world markets have been going up for a long time, since Nov. 7, 2016 when Mr. trump was elected as the US president.
The markets have been flat , however, since about Feb. 22, 2017.
What is the next move ?
The world economy has been stable now, some are even resuming growth, especially the US and China economies, this economic backdrop shall ensure there are no major risks to the stock markets in the short terms (like in 2017). The US FED is unlikely to raise the interest rates too aggressively in 2017. When it raises the interest rates, the market is likely to interpret it as a sign the economy is going better, so the stock market is likely to go up again !
It is likely that the technology companies will move up further, while the small companies may correct a bit, giving back some gains.
If the following signs are proven, the market will move higher:
1. Australia stock index keeps going up in the next few days.
2. Hong Kong index keeps going up in the next few days.
3. Nasdaq index follows the suit to go up a little bit.
Among the three indexes, Hong Kong index has the best chance of going up more.
In the mean time , the small company index Russell 2000, may correct (going down) a bit in the coming days or weeks, but that shall not affect other major indexes.
After almost 2 weeks,
Australia and Hong Kong stock indexes stayed more or less the same.
Nasdaq increased a bit.
Russell 2000 also increased a bit.
S&P 500 did not change (a bit drop).
So the world markets are unlikely to move up in the coming days or weeks, unless
S & P 500 rises and stays above 2370.
A meaningful analysis of China on-line game companies , read at
http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2017-02-25/doc-ifyavrsx5054163.shtml
The overall market has gone up a lot since Trump was elected US President on Nov. 7, 2016.
S & P 500 is up from 2130 on Nov. 6, 2016 to 2365 today , up , ~ 9.5%.
Nasdaq is up from 5166 to 5865 during the same time, up ~ 13.5%.
The biotech index IBB, is up , from ~ 260 to 293, up 12.7%.
But look at 1+ year performance from 2016.01.02 to 2017.02.22:
SP500 is up from 2010 to 2365, up ~ 17.7%
Nasdaq is up from 4575 to 5865, up ~ 28.2%
Biotech index IBB is down from 328 to 293, down – 10.7%.
Biotech should play a catch-up game in the coming weeks, assuming the overall market does not drop significantly due to a possible overdue correction.
The biology sector did not go down as we expected not long ago.
Now we think its mid-term trend has changed to going up !
The market is more or less at the peak, but may not go down , and more likely to stay flat for a while in the coming weeks.
On the other hand, our study shows the Internet sector is on the rise.
The biology sector is in downward trend for the coming days/weeks.
Now that the US FED interest rates might be raised in the coming months, bank stocks shall benefit from the rise.
The influence of currencies on stock markets is quite interesting:
When the currency drops , the stock market goes up , example:
Recently Euro versus US dollar has dropped from about 1.12 to 1.09 in October 2016, almost all European stock indexes have gone up , the representative Euro 50 has gone up from about 3000 to 3090 in October, while the US markets have dropped slightly, S & P 500 dropped from about 2160 to 2138 in October.
Now the USD is rising against Japanese Yen, USD/JPY has gone up from about 101 to 104.5 in October, the Nikkei 225 index has gone up from 16,500 to 17,300.
USD/JPY is still rising !